{"id":6318,"date":"2025-10-22T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-22T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stefanfritz.com\/?p=6318"},"modified":"2026-03-04T17:12:20","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T16:12:20","slug":"no-progress-without-cockroaches","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stefanfritz.com\/en\/no-progress-without-cockroaches\/","title":{"rendered":"No progress without cockroaches"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Why fear, risk, and speculation belong together \u2014 and how AI is teaching us that lesson right now<\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wall Street is talking about cockroaches again. Not just the real ones that come with city life, but the metaphor \u2014 the symbol of market excess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technology has never been so powerful, so promising \u2014 and so dangerously concentrated. In just three years, artificial intelligence has triggered a wave of euphoria that even Silicon Valley rarely sees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the launch of ChatGPT, over 90% of U.S. GDP growth has come from AI investments. According to Harvard economist Jason Furman, this year the American economy would be flat without this bet on the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forty percent of the entire S&P 500 is tied to just ten companies \u2014 Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, AMD, Broadcom, Palantir. That\u2019s not diversification. That\u2019s monoculture. And every monoculture has its pests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only question is: When? Not if.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or will this time be different? Have we finally found the tool to unlock the kind of efficiency leaps that revolutionized entire industries with Kaizen and later Lean Management in the 1970s?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When you see one cockroach\u2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Wall Street has a cynical saying: \u201cWhen you see one cockroach, there are probably more.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It captures the nature of financial bubbles. The first visible problem is never the last. It\u2019s just the moment the light switch is thrown. The AI economy is full of such shadows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OpenAI is promising Oracle $300 billion for data centers that haven\u2019t even been built. Nvidia is investing $100 billion in OpenAI \u2014 money that flows right back into Nvidia chips. It looks like growth, sounds like the future \u2014 but it\u2019s really a cycle of balance sheet pressure and storytelling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As long as belief holds, the system works. But when the first cockroaches is visible in the light \u2014 a collapsed deal, massive layoffs, a disappointing ROI report \u2014 the narrative shifts. And markets are nothing more than collective stories about the future. When the story breaks, so does the market price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Narratives are the oxygen of capitalism <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Scott Galloway calls it \u201cstory fragility\u201d: valuations today depend less on balance sheets than on stories. That\u2019s especially true for AI. (Source<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story goes: \u201cAI will transform work.\u201d But the data says: the share of work-related ChatGPT prompts has dropped from 47% (2022) to 27% (2025). AI isn\u2019t changing our work \u2014 it\u2019s changing our daily lives, our leisure, communication, perception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can companies like ServiceNow, Microsoft, or Neura Robotics actually turn expected efficiency gains into real productivity? Or will the productivity story evaporate before it delivers?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When trust fades, all that remains is a system telling itself it\u2019s growing \u2014 because it must.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s where the cockroaches show up: in the gap between narrative and reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Efficiency is no substitute for trust<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Maybe the next crash won\u2019t come from falling stock prices, but from rising unemployment. If AI truly delivers the promised efficiency, it will hit wages first \u2014 not prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ten million white-collar jobs could vanish in the coming years \u2014 while corporate profits remain stable or even rise. A paradox: progress works, but it destabilizes the system that supports it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an economy that distributes wealth through employment, productivity quickly becomes a threat. One less job isn\u2019t a crisis \u2014 ten million fewer is a societal shockwave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will it be different this time?\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s the real question: Is AI the kind of progress that changes everything \u2014 or just the latest version of the old cockroach logic?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Andrew Ross Sorkin offers a counterpoint to Galloway\u2019s doom narrative in the New York Times. He reminds us that speculation isn\u2019t a moral failure \u2014 it\u2019s the DNA of American capitalism. (Source<\/a>) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSpeculation isn\u2019t a bug in America\u2019s economic code \u2014 it\u2019s part of the engine.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without speculation, there would be no Tesla, no SpaceX, no OpenAI, no COVID vaccines, no railroads, no internet. Every industrial revolution begins with bets that seem irrational \u2014 until they work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sorkin\u2019s thesis: speculation is belief plus risk. It\u2019s not gambling, but the courage to invest capital in an uncertain future. Without it, there\u2019s no innovation. No risk, no momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speculation isn\u2019t a vice \u2014 it\u2019s energy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sorkin doesn\u2019t see 1929 as the end of greed, but the beginning of regulation. The crash was the price of missing structures. But instead of banning risk, the U.S. built institutions: the SEC, the FDIC, margin rules, disclosure requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We didn\u2019t eliminate speculation \u2014 we tamed it with rules. Compliance became the civilization of risk. That was the launchpad of the American century: risk as a manageable resource. Speculation was moved from vice to productivity because it was institutionalized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The lesson from 1929 isn\u2019t: don\u2019t speculate<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s: speculate responsibly<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the last 20 years, this gave rise to the VC industry \u2014 a whole sector that professionalized betting on the future, distributing, scaling, and trading risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AI era between doom and drive<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

With that, we stand between two poles today: on one side, the doomsayers who warn that the AI hype is a house of cards, built on ten overheated companies and a society that traded political reason for rising stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the progressives who say: no bet, no progress. No excess, no movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both are right. Because speculation isn\u2019t a mistake \u2014 it\u2019s energy. But energy without structure becomes explosion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The blind spot of the present<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A pattern repeats \u2014 one that\u2019s shaped America for 150 years: technology accelerates, capital concentrates, society loses balance. What\u2019s missing is governance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the dot-com crash, governance emerged over the next decade in the form of cloud stacks and platform economies \u2014 open standards at the interfaces of giant empires that collaborate and grow the pie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The state watched but didn\u2019t tame the monopolists. The U.S. didn\u2019t steer the economy \u2014 the geopolitical advantages of platform dominance were too great. In Germany and Europe, we overregulated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AI economy has no modern equivalents to the SEC or FDIC. The U.S. watches and declares a system rivalry with China. There\u2019s no clear rulebook for data, compute, or energy access. No reliable accounting for models whose assets are probabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We invest blindly \u2014 not out of naivety, but because progress outruns control. That was true in 1929, in 2000. Then and now, the same three forces drive us: belief, greed, speed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But after 1929 came financial order. After 2000, it took ten years for platform economics and cloud models to bring structure. After this AI wave, we\u2019ll need it again: new structures, new players, a new order.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe and the fear of its own cockroaches<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Is this really Europe\u2019s chance? Probably not. We think we\u2019re smarter because we spot the cockroaches earlier. In truth, we just dream of them sooner \u2014 out of fear that they might just appear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We mistake caution for reason and lose the courage to think big. Our researchers, engineers, and physicists are world-class. But what we lack isn\u2019t talent \u2014 it\u2019s hunger. The will to bet again. The courage to dent the universe, not just make the SMEs bit more efficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We regulate before we risk. And that\u2019s how we exclude ourselves from progress. Without capital, without bets, without the willingness to fail, innovation remains theory. That\u2019s why Europe\u2019s best founders still need U.S. money \u2014 because speculation is a virtue there, and a danger here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what should we do with cockroaches?\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Scott Galloway wants to be right and warns: \u201cAmerica\u2019s bet on AI is now a bet without a hedge.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Andrew Ross Sorkin reminds us: \u201cSpeculation built America.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both are true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Progress always emerges at the edge of risk and madness. The cockroaches always come \u2014 they\u2019re part of our system because they\u2019re part of us. They embody our fear of loss, of losing control, of losing relevance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They don\u2019t appear because it\u2019s over \u2014 but because we finally turn on the light. The light of collective attention. And those who don\u2019t panic, but understand what they see, build the next order. The next industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maybe that\u2019s Europe\u2019s chance: to stop running from the shadows and start interpreting them. To become a continent that believes in itself again \u2014 and in the power to shape risk, not fear it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wall Street is talking about cockroaches again. Not just the real ones that come with city life, but the metaphor \u2014 the symbol of market excess.<\/p>\n

Technology has never been so powerful, so promising \u2014 and so dangerously concentrated. In just three years, artificial intelligence has triggered a wave of euphoria that even Silicon Valley rarely sees.<\/p>\n

Since the launch of ChatGPT, over 90% of U.S. GDP growth has come from AI investments. According to Harvard economist Jason Furman, this year the American economy would be flat without this bet on the future.<\/p>\n

Forty percent of the entire S&P 500 is tied to just ten companies \u2014 Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, AMD, Broadcom, Palantir. That\u2019s not diversification. That\u2019s monoculture. And every monoculture has its pests.<\/p>\n

The only question is: When? Not if.<\/p>\n

Or will this time be different? Have we finally found the tool to unlock the kind of efficiency leaps that revolutionized entire industries with Kaizen and later Lean Management in the 1970s?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":6320,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[519,596,597,457,621,426,502,641,555,620,523],"class_list":["post-6318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gesellschaft","tag-deutschland-en","tag-future","tag-germany","tag-innovation-2","tag-it-2","tag-ki-en","tag-kuenstliche-intelligenz-en","tag-linkedin-2","tag-start-up-en","tag-technology-management","tag-unternehmertum-en"],"yoast_head":"\nNo progress without cockroaches<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Why fear, risk, and speculation belong together \u2014 and how AI is teaching us that lesson right now: Wall Street is talking about cockroaches\" 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